For other Cohen/Devereux discussions, click HERE.
From: " Jerry Cohen" <firstname.lastname@example.org> Web Site: CohenUFO.org Date: Fri, 27 Jun 1997 08:47:04 -0400 Fwd Date: Fri, 27 Jun 1997 09:09:49 -0400 Subject: Re: EL/TST (Repost to correct links) >From: DevereuxP@aol.com >Date: Wed, 19 Mar 1997 16:56:23 -0500 (EST) >To: email@example.com >Subject: Re: EL/TST & Galleons... >Date: Sat, 15 Mar 1997 12:04:28 -0500 >From: Greg Sandow <"Greg Sandow"@prodigy.net> >To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <firstname.lastname@example.org> >Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: EL/TST >>Date: Sun, 9 Mar 1997 19:48:59 -0500 >>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <email@example.com> >>From: "Jerry Cohen" <firstname.lastname@example.org> >>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: Devereux - Rutkowski EL/TST >Jerry wrote: >>I believe your theory has tended to neglect the fact that many >>ufologists already mentally put these "nocturnal light" cases >>in a lesser category, in view of the fact that out of the multitude >>of cases in existence, they are _lesser detailed cases_, and >>by definition, concern amorphous, rather than, "visibly-structured" >>objects. Therefore, although your work is highly interesting >>and will probably help us become aware of certain natural phenomena >>that exist on and within our planet, its applications to UFO >>sightings per se are necessarily limited. Paul wrote: >Yes, well, I don't see it quite this way. The fact remains that >LITS (j.c. Lights in the sky) are the most common type of sighting. >We have to ask ourselves what the real status of the 'structured >craft' is - that's the point. I *know* that's what ETH ufologists >are most interested in, and that's why they demote LITS, but >that is a psychological preference, nothing to do with objectivity. >It is in effect a cultural factor with these people (ETH = Extraterrestrial Hypothesis) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JC: Paul, you are not exactly accurate here, and you did tell Greg "Thanks Greg. The devil is in the details, isn't he?" I submit the following in regard to the place of Nocturnal Lights within the grand scheme of things. It is important to remember that Hynek spent twenty years with Blue Book thinking about all this and eventually devising his classification system. Although he wasn't thinking about TST (Tectonic Strain Theory) back then, and we certainly can further subdivide his original classifications,
I believe the basic categories still hold true today. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - BRIEF SUMMARY of HYNEK CLASSIFICATIONS: Nocturnal lights: Strangely behaving lights in the night sky Daylight Discs: UFOs sighted in the daytime. Radar & Radar/visual sightings: Radar sightings and those with visual support CE l: Detailed sighting but no observable interaction with the witness or the environment. CE ll: UFO is observed interacting with the environment and frequently, the witness as well. CE lll: Basically a CE ll case where the UFO occupants make themselves known. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JC: To develop a perspective regarding EQLs and where they fit in regarding UFOs, the following review of an analysis of the Air Force's twenty year collection of UFO reports is pertinent.
(note: EQLs = Earthquake Lights) REVISED BLUE BOOK STATISTICS: The following quotes from: Hynek, J. Allen . The Hynek UFO Report . Chapt. 11 "The Air Force Numbers Game" . Dell Publishing Co, Inc. 1977 . . . The Revised Blue Book Statistics -- What Really Was Going On? "A member of the staff of the Center for UFO Studies and I have comprehensively re-evaluated all the cases which comprise the ninety-four reels of microfilmed Project Blue Book records. Despite Blue Book's inadequate follow-up and investigation of the bulk of these cases, it was possible for us to form some sort of judgment as to whether or not the Air Force conclusions were, in each case, valid. In many cases we agreed with the Air Force--and in many we did not. So, let us now examine how things change when one grants the assumption that there may indeed be some sort of unidentified aerial phenomena, source and nature unknown, which may have been, for the most part, accurately reported by over sixteen thousand witnesses." ....snip.... J.C. Hynek lists the revised number of unidentifieds by year from
1947-69, totaling approximately 640. (Which worked out to about 5.8% unidentified after reexamination.) Then he says... ....snip.... "Now let us see what kind of UFOs we are dealing with. The reader
is by now well acquainted with the classification scheme utilized
in this book, and it is of interest to examine the 640 revised 'Unknowns' to see how they divide themselves into these classes." TABLE 11.5 -- Types of Revised Unknowns Type Number % of Unknowns Nocturnal Lights................243................38% Daylight Discs..................271................42 Radar-Visual.....................29.................5 Radar............................10.................2 Close Encounters of the first kind................46.................7 Close Encounters of the second kind...............33.................5 Close Encounters of the third kind.................8.................1 For a more recent, startling re-evaluation of these figures by
researcher Brad Sparks, click HERE.
To realize why Brad's re-evaluation was necessary, keep reading: jc: The following are also Hynek's words: "What is extremely surprising here is the great number of Daylight Disc cases reported. These cases, from Blue Book files alone, and neglecting the wealth of information from the civilian
UFO organizations around the world, involve many hundreds of
witnesses, the majority of them with Air Force or some other
technical background (sometimes scientific)." Hynek continues:
"It is rather surprising that Nocturnal Lights do not lead the list,
as they do in most other studies. (jc 11/23/2009: So most people weren't seeing just "a light in the sky.")
Less surprising is the fact that far fewer 'high strangeness' cases were reported to the Air Force, or to be exact, reached
the Blue Book desks.* A check of cases available in the open literature, not including
the unpublished files of APRO and NICAP, shows that, conservatively,
at least five times as many high strangeness cases did not reach the
Blue Book list as did. Probably the figure is closer to ten times the
cases than five." (J.C. i.e. cases that were recorded - NB: Red, black
and blue highlighting of Hynek's words for emphasis only) Hynek further continues: "I surmise that the factor was larger in the late years of Blue Book because by that time the 'all is nonsense' approach of the Air Force was well known and it had become clear to the general public that reporting strange UFO events to the Air Force was not only pointless as a serious scientific matter, but was apt to bring ridicule to the reporter." (jc: Remember, this is the Air Force scientific consultant
saying this.) * We have ample evidence, not only from the reports received by the Center for UFO Studies, which is a relatively new organization, but from the two oldest civilian UFO fact-gathering organizations, the Aerial Phenomena Research Organization and the National Investigations Committee for Aerial Phenomena, that a large number
of "high strangeness" cases have, in fact, occurred - particularly Close Encounter cases of all three types." (jc: Portions of above Hynek text reddened by this researcher.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - jc: Please remember: a) Blue Book (the Air Force) had been skewing the results to reduce the number of unknowns. That is why Hynek's re-analysis was necessary. (Begin at the following address) Oberg/Cooper rebuttal.5 http://www.cohenufo.org/ocr.5a.html b) Additionally, these were statistics for 1949-69. Blue Book closed in 1969, almost 30 years ago. There have been many well detailed, dramatic cases since that time including the FOIA documented 1975 SAC Base visits, 1976 Iranian Case, Walton, Moody, Pascagoula, and
1989/90 Belgium NATO Military Encounter, to name just a few.jc 6/22/2006 Hynek figures : For information from Colm Kelleher
at NIDS regarding a very important limited re-evaluation of Hynek's figures
by researcher Brad Sparks, please click here. For an important quote from
Brad regarding his own observations and those of Dr. James McDonald
concerning many of those cases, click here.
Paul, when one is appraised of the preceding, it becomes obvious that those claiming that TST and "helmet generated visions" are a "major solution" to UFOs are possibly not cognizant of this portion of the data, or if they are, they are ignoring it. They are, at the moment, analyzing what Hynek felt was actually less than 52% of the unidentified cases (because of the number of high strangeness cases that never reached the Air Force), they are analyzing the lesser detailed ones at that, and are additionally claiming that those cases cover a larger portion than they actually do. In reality, they have a long way to go to complete their analysis properly. (And it must be done on a specific "case by case" basis. Generalities will not solve the problem or make it go away.) Serious UFO researchers are certainly open to this analysis, and actually welcome it, but only in this proper manner. Looking forward to your eventual comments on SKYTHING 1960 & Exeter and how they relate to your theories. You mentioned in a note to me that you don't have the time to comment on these specific cases and how your theories relate to them. This is certainly unfortunate for the reasons mentioned above. Again, those addresses are: Exeter 1/2 Exeter 2/2 SKYTHING 1960 is archived at: http://www.cohenufo.org/ocr.2.html Respectfully submitted, Jerry Cohen E-mail: "Jerry Cohen" <email@example.com> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ADDENDUM If anyone else is interested, here are some additional Hynek comments on Nocturnal lights followed by a detailed look at his UFO classification system. . . . The following quote from Hynek, J. Allen . The UFO Experience . Henry Regnery Co. 1972 . Part II: The Data and the Problem . 5 Nocturnal Lights REGARDING NOCTURNAL LIGHTS: "It should be clearly understood that initial light-in-the-night-sky reports have a very low survival rate. An experienced investigator readily recognizes most of these for what they are: bright meteors, aircraft landing lights, balloons, planets, violently twinkling, stars, searchlights, advertising lights on planes, refueling missions, etc. When one realizes the unfamiliarity of the general public with lights in the night sky of this variety, it is obvious why so many such UFO reports arise. Of course, such trivial cases do not satisfy the definition of UFO used in this book. " (jc: Portion of above Hynek text reddened & italicized by this researcher.) . . . The following quotes from: Hynek, J. Allen . The Hynek UFO Report . Chapt. 2 . Dell Publishing Co, Inc. 1977 HYNEK'S UFO CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (in depth) "A number of years ago I devised a simple classification system, much like an astronomer might use to classify different types of stars or a zoologist different types of beetles that he came across in his explorations." NOCTURNAL LIGHTS: Since the most frequently reported sighting are those of strangely behaving lights in the night sky, I called these simply, Nocturnal Lights. This doesn't include just any lights that puzzle the observer (many people are puzzled by bright planets, twinkling stars, and aircraft at night), but those which are truly puzzling, even to experts, because their behavior does not fit the pattern of lights from known sources. One must always keep in mind that the 'U' in UFO simply means 'unidentified' -- but unidentified to all, not just to the witnesses." (jc: obviously an important point.) DAYLIGHT DISCS: Then there are the UFOs sighted in the daytime. Since the majority (but not all) of these have an oval shape and are often reported as metallic-looking, these are simply called Daylight Discs. Most UFO photographs made in the daytime portray such discs (see p. 95). It could be that Nocturnal Lights observed in the daytime would appear as Daylight Discs -- we don't know. But observationally the distinction is useful." (jc 2/29/2008: Many UFOs we are seeing today appear to be more like large triangles, although there is still quite a variety of sizes and shapes. N.B. These more recent craft are _much_ larger than the craft previously reported in years past.) RADAR & RADAR-VISUAL SIGHTINGS: A separate category is also needed for UFOs that are indicated by radar. An important subdivision in this category are radar findings that are supported by visual observations. If it can be established with reasonable assurance that a radar sighting confirms a visual sighting, or vice versa, then obviously this sighting is of major importance." CLOSE ENCOUNTERS: A broad category of utmost importance consists of those UFO sightings, regardless of type, that occur very close at hand, say within a few hundred feet, or at least close enough so that the witness is able to use his stereoscopic vision and discern considerable detail. These sightings are, so to speak, in the immediate reference frame of the observer -- they are not 'someone else's UFO,' but very much this observer's UFO, a sort of very personal UFO experience." "I have termed this broad category of UFOs the Close Encounters. There are three obvious kinds of Close Encounters, and it will be helpful to define them separately. Again, the distinction lies in what is observed rather than in any certain fundamental difference." CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE FIRST KIND (CE l) Here we have a close encounter with a UFO but there is no interaction of the UFO with either the witness or the environment, or at least none that is discernible. The encounter must be close enough, however, so that the UFO is in the observer's own frame of reference and he is able to see details. The chance, therefore, of this sighting being a misidentification of Venus or a conventional aircraft, etc., is quite small, particularly if the sighting is made by several persons." CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE SECOND KIND (CE ll) Here the UFO is observed interacting with the environment and frequently with the witness as well. The interaction can be with inanimate matter, as when holes or rings are made on the ground, or with animate matter, as when animals are affected (sometimes becoming aware of the presence of the UFO even before human witnesses). People too, can be affected, as in the many reported cases of burns, temporary paralysis, nausea, conjunctivitis, etc. But in order for a CE-ll to have taken place, the presence of the UFO must be established at the same spot in which the physical effects are noted.That is, if a burnt ring on the ground is noted, it must be at the exact place where the UFO was sighted hovering, or if an automobile ignition system is interfered with, such interference must have occurred at the time and place of the UFO sighting." "The observed physical effects in these cases (often called 'physical trace cases') must not be explainable in some other obvious way. That is, if holes in the ground ('landing marks') are found, these marks must be unique, and not like marks found elsewhere in the vicinity." "Close Encounters of the Second Kind are of particular interest to scientists who can, in a sense, bring the UFO 'into the laboratory.' Burnt grasses, samples of disturbed soil, etc., can be tested with a view toward determining what caused the burn, what pressures were necessary to produce the imprints on the ground, and to finding what chemical changes occurred in the soil samples by comparing the affected soil with control samples from the vicinity. To this day, no 'piece' of an actual UFO has ever been authenticated but the effects of the presence of UFOs have been amply attested to. A catalogue of over eight hundred cases in which the UFO was both seen and left physical traces has been compiled by Mr. Ted Phillips* and the catalogue continues to grow." CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE THIRD KIND (CE lll) Here there is not only a close encounter with the UFO, but with its apparent 'occupants' or 'UFOnauts.' Close Encounters of the Third Kind bring us to grips with the most puzzling aspect of the UFO phenomenon: the apparent presence of intelligence other than our own, intelligence we can recognize but not understand. Hundreds of Close Encounters of the Third Kind have been reported all over the world in the past decades. A catalogue of over one thousand cases has been compiled by Bloecher; it, like other UFO catalogues, continues to grow." "UFOs of other categories seem to demonstrate intelligent action. Certainly this action does not appear to be random, but seems almost programmed or planned. As reported, UFOs buzz airplanes and cars, prefer the lonely hours of the night, usually but by no means exclusively avoid crowds and urban areas, and make singularly 'local' appearances rather than moving about a wide area of the country." "In Close Encounters of the Third Kind, where the occupants make their presence known, we find reported creatures who resemble humans but are predominantly shorter and slimmer, capable of communication in their own way and on their own terms. Their interaction with humans has be reported to be largely impersonal, neither overtly friendly nor hostile. There have been instances, reported in all seriousness, of 'abductions' of humans, ostensibly for 'testing purposes.' The details of such abductions have almost always been obtained through regressive hypnosis since it appears that the abduction experience, whatever its physical reality, has proved so traumatic to the witness or witnesses that the conscious memory retains only a mere skeleton of the total experience. The details must generally be obtained from the subconscious." "Clearly, Close Encounters of the Third Kind hold the most fascination for us because they bring into focus most sharply our fear of the unknown, the concept of other intelligence in space, and the possibility of intelligent contact with such beings, with all that such contact might imply for the human race." (jc Addendum 2006: Reminder again concerning an ongoing re-appraisal
of Project Blue Book cases by Brad Sparks on Errol's Virtually
Strange website . . .
or click HERE. * see quote from same immediately below)
* NIDS Quote regarding Blue Book statistics, and an observation by researcher
Brad Sparks concerning many of those cases:
"When Project Blue Book (BB) closed down on Jan. 30, 1970 (it was not on Dec. 17, 1969,
which was merely the announcement date by the Secretary of the Air Force) the total number of
Unidentified sightings was thought to be 701 and this is the number given on all subsequent press
releases and so-called 'fact sheets.' However, based on the review by Hynek and the CUFOS
staff of the released sanitized BB microfilm and Hynek's personal records which included many
missing (and unsanitized) BB documents, the final number was determined to have been
approximately 587, apparently reflecting an IFO elimination process carried out on old historical
cases by the last BB Chief, Major Hector Quintanilla in the 60's (and of dubious scientific validity
based on examples McDonald studied), which must have reduced the number of Unexplained
cases by 114. Evidently the AF did not update its annual historical UFO statistics to reflect this
gradual winnowing process, not realizing it could improve upon its anti UFO PR position by
reducing the perennially embarrassing number of Unidentifieds.
However, in reverse, Hynek re-evaluated 53 Blue Book IFO cases as Unexplained UFO cases,
bringing the total partially back, up to 640, unfortunately a complete list identifying these is not
available, though some of the worksheets have been copied by Jan Aldrich from CUFOS-Hynek
files. A number of the re-evaluated cases have been included in The Hynek UFO Report book
published in 1977. Much more disturbing are the indications from my limited review of BB cases
that there may be as many as possibly 4,000 Unexplained UFO cases miscategorized as
IFO's in the BB files. (jc: bolding and italics of Sparks' and McDonald's comments are mine)
Brad Sparks continues: McDonald similarly stated in 1968 at his CASI lecture that from
his review of BB cases he estimated that 30-40% of 12,000 cases were Unexplained, or
about 3,600 to 4,800. These are mostly military cases and many involve radar."
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