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Re: EL/TST (Repost to correct links)

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From: " Jerry Cohen" <rjcohen@li.net>
Web Site: CohenUFO.org
Date: Fri, 27 Jun 1997 08:47:04 -0400
Fwd Date: Fri, 27 Jun 1997 09:09:49 -0400
Subject: Re: EL/TST (Repost to correct links)

>From: DevereuxP@aol.com
>Date: Wed, 19 Mar 1997 16:56:23 -0500 (EST)
>To: updates@globalserve.net
>Subject: Re: EL/TST & Galleons...

>Date: Sat, 15 Mar 1997 12:04:28 -0500
>From: Greg Sandow <"Greg Sandow"@prodigy.net>
>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: EL/TST

>>Date: Sun, 9 Mar 1997 19:48:59 -0500
>>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
>>From: "Jerry Cohen" <rjcohen@li.net>
>>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: Devereux - Rutkowski EL/TST

>Jerry wrote:  

>>I believe your theory has tended to neglect the fact that many
>>ufologists already mentally put these "nocturnal light" cases
>>in a lesser category, in view of the fact that out of the multitude
>>of cases in existence, they are _lesser detailed cases_, and
>>by definition, concern amorphous, rather than, "visibly-structured"
>>objects. Therefore, although your work is highly interesting
>>and will probably help us become aware of certain natural phenomena
>>that exist on and within our planet, its applications to UFO
>>sightings per se are necessarily limited.

Paul wrote:

>Yes, well, I don't see it quite this way. The fact remains that
>LITS (j.c. Lights in the sky) are the most common type of sighting.
>We have to ask ourselves what the real status of the 'structured
>craft' is - that's the point. I *know* that's what ETH ufologists 
>are most interested in, and that's why they demote LITS, but 
>that is a psychological preference, nothing to do with objectivity. 
>It is in effect a cultural factor with these people
(ETH = Extraterrestrial Hypothesis)
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JC:   Paul, you are not exactly accurate here, and you did tell Greg
"Thanks Greg. The devil is in the details, isn't he?"

I submit the following in regard to the place of Nocturnal Lights within
the grand scheme of things. It is important to remember that Hynek
spent twenty years with Blue Book thinking about all this and
eventually devising his classification system.

Although he wasn't thinking about TST (Tectonic Strain Theory) back
then, and we certainly can further subdivide his original classifications, 
I believe the basic categories still hold true today.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -             BRIEF SUMMARY of HYNEK CLASSIFICATIONS: Nocturnal lights: Strangely behaving lights in the night sky Daylight Discs: UFOs sighted in the daytime. Radar & Radar/visual sightings: Radar sightings and those with                                 visual support CE l:   Detailed sighting but no observable interaction with the         witness or the environment. CE ll:  UFO is observed interacting with the environment and         frequently, the witness as well. CE lll: Basically a CE ll case where the UFO occupants make         themselves known. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - JC:   To develop a perspective regarding EQLs and where they fit in regarding UFOs, the following review of an analysis of the Air Force's twenty year collection of UFO reports is pertinent.
(note: EQLs = Earthquake Lights)
REVISED BLUE BOOK STATISTICS: The following quotes from: Hynek, J. Allen . The Hynek UFO Report . Chapt. 11 "The Air Force Numbers Game" . Dell Publishing Co, Inc. 1977                              . . . The Revised Blue Book Statistics -- What Really Was Going On? "A member of the staff of the Center for UFO Studies and I have comprehensively re-evaluated all the cases which comprise the ninety-four reels of microfilmed Project Blue Book records. Despite Blue Book's inadequate follow-up and investigation of the bulk of these cases, it was possible for us to form some sort of judgment as to whether or not the Air Force conclusions were, in each case, valid. In many cases we agreed with the Air Force--and in many we did not. So, let us now examine how things change when one grants the assumption that there may indeed be some sort of unidentified aerial phenomena, source and nature unknown, which may have been, for the most part, accurately reported by over sixteen thousand witnesses." ....snip.... J.C.   Hynek lists the revised number of unidentifieds by year from
1947-69, totaling approximately 640. (Which worked out to about 5.8% unidentified after reexamination.) Then he says...
....snip....
"Now let us see what kind of UFOs we are dealing with. The reader
is by now well acquainted with the classification scheme utilized
in this book, and it is of interest to examine the 640 revised 'Unknowns' to see how they divide themselves into these classes." TABLE 11.5 -- Types of Revised Unknowns Type                           Number         % of Unknowns Nocturnal Lights................243................38% Daylight Discs..................271................42 Radar-Visual.....................29.................5 Radar............................10.................2 Close Encounters of    the first kind................46.................7 Close Encounters of    the second kind...............33.................5 Close Encounters of    the third kind.................8.................1 For a more recent, startling re-evaluation of these figures by
researcher Brad Sparks, click HERE.

To realize why Brad's re-evaluation was necessary, keep reading: jc: The following are also Hynek's words: "What is extremely surprising here is the great number of Daylight Disc cases reported. These cases, from Blue Book files alone, and neglecting the wealth of information from the civilian
UFO organizations around the world, involve many hundreds of
witnesses, the majority of them with Air Force or some other
technical background (sometimes scientific)." Hynek continues:

"It is rather surprising that Nocturnal Lights do not lead the list,
as they do in most other studies.   (jc 11/23/2009: So most people weren't seeing just "a light in the sky.")      
Less surprising is the fact that far fewer 'high strangeness' cases were reported to the Air Force, or to be exact, reached
the Blue Book desks.* A check of cases available in the open literature,
not including
the unpublished files of APRO and NICAP, shows that, conservatively,
at least five times as many high strangeness cases did not reach the
Blue Book list as did. Probably the figure is closer to ten times the
cases than five."
(J.C. i.e. cases that were recorded - NB: Red, black
and blue highlighting of Hynek's words for emphasis only)
Hynek further continues: "I surmise that the factor was larger in the late years of Blue Book because by that time the 'all is nonsense' approach of the Air Force was well known and it had become clear to the general public that reporting strange UFO events to the Air Force was not only pointless as a serious scientific matter, but was apt to bring ridicule to the reporter." (jc: Remember, this is the Air Force scientific consultant
saying this.)
*   We have ample evidence, not only from the reports received by the Center for UFO Studies, which is a relatively new organization, but from the two oldest civilian UFO fact-gathering organizations, the Aerial Phenomena Research Organization and the National Investigations Committee for Aerial Phenomena, that a large number
of "high strangeness" cases have, in fact, occurred - particularly Close Encounter cases of all three types." (jc: Portions of above Hynek text reddened by this researcher.) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
jc:    Please remember:
a) Blue Book (the Air Force) had been skewing the results to reduce the number of unknowns. That is why Hynek's re-analysis was necessary. (Begin at the following address)    Oberg/Cooper rebuttal.5              http://www.cohenufo.org/ocr.5a.html b) Additionally, these were statistics for 1949-69. Blue Book closed   in 1969, almost 30 years ago. There have been many well detailed,   dramatic cases since that time including the FOIA documented 1975   SAC Base visits, 1976 Iranian Case, Walton, Moody, Pascagoula, and
1989/90 Belgium NATO Military Encounter, to name just a few.
jc 6/22/2006 Hynek figures : For information from Colm Kelleher 
at NIDS regarding a very important limited re-evaluation of Hynek's figures
by researcher Brad Sparks, please click
here. For an important quote from
Brad regarding his own observations and those of Dr. James McDonald
concerning many of those cases, click
here.


Paul, when one is appraised of the preceding, it becomes obvious that those 
claiming that TST and "helmet generated visions" are a "major solution" to UFOs 
are possibly not cognizant of this portion of the data, or if they are, they are 
ignoring it. They are, at the moment, analyzing what Hynek felt was 
actually less than 52% of the unidentified cases (because of the number 
of high strangeness cases that never reached the Air Force), they are 
analyzing the lesser detailed ones at that, and are additionally claiming 
that those cases cover a larger portion than they actually do. In reality, 
they have a long way to go to complete their analysis properly. (And it must 
be done on a specific "case by case" basis. Generalities will not solve the 
problem or make it go away.) Serious UFO researchers are certainly open to 
this analysis, and actually welcome it, but only in this proper manner.

Looking forward to your eventual comments on SKYTHING 1960 & Exeter
and how they relate to your theories. You mentioned in a note to me
that you don't have the time to comment on these specific cases and
how your theories relate to them. This is certainly unfortunate for
the reasons mentioned above.

Again, those addresses are:
Exeter 1/2
Exeter 2/2

SKYTHING 1960 is archived at:

http://www.cohenufo.org/ocr.2.html

Respectfully submitted,
Jerry Cohen

E-mail:  "Jerry Cohen" <rjcohen@li.net>
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ADDENDUM
If anyone else is interested, here are some additional Hynek comments
on Nocturnal lights followed by a detailed look at his UFO classification 
system.
                             . . .

The following quote from Hynek, J. Allen . The UFO Experience . Henry
Regnery Co. 1972 . Part II: The Data and the Problem . 5 Nocturnal
Lights

REGARDING NOCTURNAL LIGHTS:
"It should be clearly understood that initial light-in-the-night-sky
reports have a very low survival rate. An experienced investigator
readily recognizes most of these for what they are: bright meteors,
aircraft landing lights, balloons, planets, violently twinkling, stars,
searchlights, advertising lights on planes, refueling missions, etc.
When one realizes the unfamiliarity of the general public with lights 
in the night sky of this variety, it is obvious why so many such UFO 
reports arise. Of course, such trivial cases do not satisfy the 
definition of UFO used in this book. "

(jc:	Portion of above Hynek text reddened & italicized by this researcher.)


                             . . .



The following quotes from: Hynek, J. Allen . The Hynek UFO Report . 
Chapt. 2 . Dell Publishing Co, Inc. 1977


           HYNEK'S UFO CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM (in depth)
            
"A number of years ago I devised a simple classification system, much
like an astronomer might use to classify different types of stars or
a zoologist different types of beetles that he came across in his
explorations."

NOCTURNAL LIGHTS:
Since the most frequently reported sighting are those of strangely
behaving lights in the night sky, I called these simply, Nocturnal
Lights. This doesn't include just any lights that puzzle the observer
(many people are puzzled by bright planets, twinkling stars, and
aircraft at night), but those which are truly puzzling, even to
experts, because their behavior does not fit the pattern of lights
from known sources. One must always keep in mind that the 'U' in 
UFO simply means 'unidentified' -- but unidentified to all, not just 
to the witnesses."   (jc: obviously an important point.)

DAYLIGHT DISCS:
Then there are the UFOs sighted in the daytime. Since the majority
(but not all) of these have an oval shape and are often reported as
metallic-looking, these are simply called Daylight Discs. Most UFO
photographs made in the daytime portray such discs (see p. 95). It
could be that Nocturnal Lights observed in the daytime would appear
as Daylight Discs -- we don't know. But observationally the
distinction is useful." (jc 2/29/2008: Many UFOs we are seeing today 
appear to be more like large triangles, although there is still quite a variety 
of sizes and shapes.  N.B. These more recent craft are _much_ larger than 
the craft previously reported in years past.)

RADAR & RADAR-VISUAL SIGHTINGS:
A separate category is also needed for UFOs that are indicated by
radar. An important subdivision in this category are radar findings
that are supported by visual observations. If it can be established
with reasonable assurance that a radar sighting confirms a visual
sighting, or vice versa, then obviously this sighting is of major
importance."

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS:
A broad category of utmost importance consists of those UFO
sightings, regardless of type, that occur very close at hand, 
say within a few hundred feet, or at least close enough so that 
the witness is able to use his stereoscopic vision and discern
considerable detail. These sightings are, so to speak, in the
immediate reference frame of the observer -- they are not 
'someone else's UFO,' but very much this observer's UFO, a sort 
of very personal UFO experience."

"I have termed this broad category of UFOs the Close Encounters. 
There are three obvious kinds of Close Encounters, and it will be 
helpful to define them separately. Again, the distinction lies in 
what is observed rather than in any certain fundamental difference."

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE FIRST KIND (CE l)
Here we have a close encounter with a UFO but there is no interaction
of the UFO with either the witness or the environment, or at least
none that is discernible. The encounter must be close enough, however, 
so that the UFO is in the observer's own frame of reference and he is 
able to see details. The chance, therefore, of this sighting being a 
misidentification of Venus or a conventional aircraft, etc., is quite 
small, particularly if the sighting is made by several persons."

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE SECOND KIND (CE ll)
Here the UFO is observed interacting with the environment and
frequently with the witness as well. The interaction can be with
inanimate matter, as when holes or rings are made on the ground, 
or with animate matter, as when animals are affected (sometimes 
becoming aware of the presence of the UFO even before human witnesses). 
People too, can be affected, as in the many reported cases of burns,
temporary paralysis, nausea, conjunctivitis, etc. But in order for a
CE-ll to have taken place, the presence of the UFO must be established 
at the same spot in which the physical effects are noted.That is, if a 
burnt ring on the ground is noted, it must be at the exact place where 
the UFO was sighted hovering, or if an automobile ignition system is 
interfered with, such interference must have occurred at the time and 
place of the UFO sighting."

"The observed physical effects in these cases (often called 'physical
trace cases') must not be explainable in some other obvious way. That
is, if holes in the ground ('landing marks') are found, these marks
must be unique, and not like marks found elsewhere in the vicinity."

"Close Encounters of the Second Kind are of particular interest to
scientists who can, in a sense, bring the UFO 'into the laboratory.'
Burnt grasses, samples of disturbed soil, etc., can be tested with a
view toward determining what caused the burn, what pressures were
necessary to produce the imprints on the ground, and to finding what
chemical changes occurred in the soil samples by comparing the
affected soil with control samples from the vicinity. To this day, no
'piece' of an actual UFO has ever been authenticated but the effects
of the presence of UFOs have been amply attested to. A catalogue of
over eight hundred cases in which the UFO was both seen and left
physical traces has been compiled by Mr. Ted Phillips* and the
catalogue continues to grow."

CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE THIRD KIND (CE lll)
Here there is not only a close encounter with the UFO, but with its
apparent 'occupants' or 'UFOnauts.' Close Encounters of the Third
Kind bring us to grips with the most puzzling aspect of the UFO
phenomenon: the apparent presence of intelligence other than our own,
intelligence we can recognize but not understand. Hundreds of Close
Encounters of the Third Kind have been reported all over the world in
the past decades. A catalogue of over one thousand cases has been
compiled by Bloecher; it, like other UFO catalogues, continues to
grow."

"UFOs of other categories seem to demonstrate intelligent action.
Certainly this action does not appear to be random, but seems almost
programmed or planned. As reported, UFOs buzz airplanes and cars,
prefer the lonely hours of the night, usually but by no means
exclusively avoid crowds and urban areas, and make singularly 'local'
appearances rather than moving about a wide area of the country."

"In Close Encounters of the Third Kind, where the occupants make their
presence known, we find reported creatures who resemble humans but
are predominantly shorter and slimmer, capable of communication in
their own way and on their own terms. Their interaction with humans
has be reported to be largely impersonal, neither overtly friendly
nor hostile. There have been instances, reported in all seriousness,
of 'abductions' of humans, ostensibly for 'testing purposes.' The
details of such abductions have almost always been obtained through
regressive hypnosis since it appears that the abduction experience,
whatever its physical reality, has proved so traumatic to the witness
or witnesses that the conscious memory retains only a mere skeleton
of the total experience. The details must generally be obtained from
the subconscious."

"Clearly, Close Encounters of the Third Kind hold the most fascination
for us because they bring into focus most sharply our fear of the
unknown, the concept of other intelligence in space, and the
possibility of intelligent contact with such beings, with all that
such contact might imply for the human race."


(jc Addendum 2006: Reminder again concerning an ongoing re-appraisal 
of Project Blue Book cases by Brad Sparks on Errol's Virtually
Strange website . . .
http://ufoupdateslist.com/2003/jul/m03-016.shtml
or click HERE. * see quote from same immediately below)



* NIDS Quote regarding Blue Book statistics, and an observation by researcher
Brad Sparks concerning many of those cases:

<begin quote>

"When Project Blue Book (BB) closed down on Jan. 30, 1970 (it was not on Dec. 17, 1969,
which was merely the announcement date by the Secretary of the Air Force) the total number of
Unidentified sightings was thought to be 701 and this is the number given on all subsequent press
releases and so-called 'fact sheets.' However, based on the review by Hynek and the CUFOS
staff of the released sanitized BB microfilm and Hynek's personal records which included many
missing (and unsanitized) BB documents, the final number was determined to have been
approximately 587, apparently reflecting an IFO elimination process carried out on old historical
cases by the last BB Chief, Major Hector Quintanilla in the 60's (and of dubious scientific validity
based on examples McDonald studied), which must have reduced the number of Unexplained
cases by 114. Evidently the AF did not update its annual historical UFO statistics to reflect this
gradual winnowing process, not realizing it could improve upon its anti UFO PR position by
reducing the perennially embarrassing number of Unidentifieds.


However, in reverse, Hynek re-evaluated 53 Blue Book IFO cases as Unexplained UFO cases,
bringing the total partially back, up to 640, unfortunately a complete list identifying these is not
available, though some of the worksheets have been copied by Jan Aldrich from CUFOS-Hynek
files. A number of the re-evaluated cases have been included in The Hynek UFO Report book
published in 1977. Much more disturbing are the indications from my limited review of BB cases
that there may be as many as possibly 4,000 Unexplained UFO cases miscategorized as
IFO's in the BB files.
(jc: bolding and italics of Sparks' and McDonald's comments are mine)
Brad Sparks continues: McDonald similarly stated in 1968 at his CASI lecture that from
his review of BB cases he
estimated that 30-40% of 12,000 cases were Unexplained, or
about 3,600 to 4,800.
These are mostly military cases and many involve radar."


<end quote>


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